Here is "Da Bears" (known on contrarian message boards) latest report.
"If you survived 2008, you weren't there." -- da bear
I hope everyone partied like it was Christmas 1929. I know I did. The stock market was not open on Thursday, and was open a half day on Wednesday. Even so stocks went up on Wednesday (at least i think they did) and they went up on Friday). The DJIA managed to close the week above 8,500 which i guess is the new 8,700. and hopefully the DJIA will close above 8,700 by New Years. ... 8,700 is the new 9,000.
In the first several days of January 2008 I posted a thread with the question being asked "is this year over yet?" January started off with a bang of doom as the market declined into MLK Jr. Day. that was merely one of the first waves down after the last top that eked out a new high in October 2007. I am sure that most have heard of the so-called January Effect where the direction of stocks in January is a good indicator of where stocks go for the rest of the year. Well, this January stocks got up on the wrong side of the bed. ... basically it awoke from its post-New Year's Eve bash as a bear. And like all bears, it stumbled out of bed, took a swig of Jack Daniels (well, at least that is what da bear does), and put on its pants just like every other bear does -- one leg down at a time. January was a bad month. February was the shortest month of the 2008 bear market. but even for a short month it was long. It had 29 days instead of 28 days. possibly an omen in and of itself.
I am now preempting this regularly scheduled Report (that is several days late) to bring you a word from our sponsors...
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Didn't Bears Turns go under in February? no i think i am wrong, but it did start to go bust big time starting at the beginning of 2008. Ah, remember the old da bear vs. bears turns match? yeah, i pretty much beat that spread!
The first wave down in stocks ended in January and the market tried to make it back. No market goes in one direction. Usually it goes in two, or three, or four. That is 1) up
2) down
3) the loop-de-loop just like at Six Six Six Flags Great North American Union theme park in Denver, CO (Denver is gonna be the new home of
the federal government as well as the home of this hemisphere's greatest wooden roller coasters).
4) I forget the other direction. maybe it is backwards. can the market go backwards? if not then what does backwardation mean? because i
would really like to know. I think I know the definition of backwardation but i might have it wrong, exactly wrong to be exact, yes, I fear that
my definition is completely backasswards. When i find the meaning of backwardation I will let you know. i will probably put out a report
about it. Antal Fekete says that gold is currently under backasswardization or something. which means that when gold looks in the mirror
at his ass he can get it cheaper if he waits five more minutes. Or something like that...
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This past March was like deja vu all over again. I called my broker, knew i should buy the puts but totally wussed out. Just like March 2000! Nothing works in a bear market. Not even deja vu.
Here it is folks, here is my plan: I plan to put out a series of Da Year in Review Reports. I will call each one I do (insert air quotes here:) "Lasers" -- oops, I'm sorry "Parts." This is Part One: The Laser Edition. EXACTLY!
LASER: Better Living Through Laser Beam Blasts To The Head!
... how about a little change of pace here? instead of my random rants, i will proceed to retort extemporaneously. At the first decent low (or second low) after a very sluggish summer after the market had an after May sell-off, the Simply Fabulous Letter appeared in which SimplyFabulous3006 said that I, da bear, called for a bottom, and called for a top at around 12,500. well, indeed that was a short-term low. and the market did indeed go higher. then after following the market more i placed the target high around 12,000 or so. I called for an a, b, c upward correction in the Letter that Simply Fabulous wrote, err, simply fabulously (!). Then Prechter Co. called for that same thing. then Robert McHugh put out a target high of 11,800. then Granville called for a rally. ... so i told everyone to start looking for a top around 11,800. Well the Dow Jones Post-Industrial Below Average made a few attempts at 11,800 hit them but never got above them, made a few lower highs-- then the bottom fell out. ... as i said at the time, the Powers That Be would allow us all to go watch the new Batman movie. and at that point the market made a short-term low in July so we could all watch the Dark Knight. Unfortunately, about the same time that "Dark Knight" left theatres the "Dark Bear" returned and underwent the 3rd of a 3rd of a third down that many have been waiting for.
here is a link to the chart of the Dow: http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=djia&sid...
The Fall of 2008 will go down in history -- just as Bears Turns, Lame Man Brothers went down in history.
Just as George Walker Bush went down in history.
Just as Hank 'the Tank' Paulson went down in history.
Just as bin Bernanke went down in history.
Just as billions in bailout money went down in history.
IN FLAMES!
Stocks did their best impersonation of the Crash of 1929. Fear was on the ceiling (as gaged by the VIX, treasury bill rates, and the US Dollar), as everything else fell through the floor. Oil, having hit a top in July proceeded to crash. it was not spared from the deflationary carnage. gold and silver were not spared either. however, this decline set up great buying opportunities for gold and silver. In October the DJIA made a crash low, and just like in the fall of 1929 the market made a brief bounce then a slightly lower low in November. The final wave down sent "Dow Jones Redefeats McCain-Palin" headlines roaring across the innernetts...
link to 1929 chart of the Dow: http://www.sharelynx.com/chartsfixed/USDJIND1929cr.gif
I will discuss the current parallel to the 1929 to 1932 time frame in later parts of this Year in Review Series. I suggest for anyone interested to peruse Martin Armstrong's work on the Great Depression. there is a link to it on bart's website at nowandfutures.com. his website has some good stuff. check bart's site out!
This Just In: Jeffolie named Wal-Street Weak's Poster of the Year! Congrats Jeffolie!!!
... ah, back to the future. So the market touched down in November this year to mirror the 1929 parallel. Actually, after the Dow made a crash bottom in April (the 3 of 3 low) the market rallied into the election, and on election day the market was up big time. However, in a case of buy the rumor sell the news the market dropped the day after the election and fell into its slightly lower low for the year. So the runup up to Election Day (wave 4 of 3) was followed by a swift reversal that lead to a slightly lower low (wave 5 of 3). We are somewhere in Wave 4 up which can be compared to the November 1929 to Spring 1930 market. after that, Big Wave 5 down will take stocks down big again (like 1930-1932) and end Wave A down of this big ass bear market.
if this Wave 4 acts like the smaller wave 4 of 3 then the market could rally into the Inauguration and then fall. a top in late January 2009 would mirror the top in the Dow in late January 2000. also, gold topped in January 1980. in the next part i will discuss gold and silver more. ... in later parts i will discuss where we are going next year and beyond.
If the Dow mirrors the Nasdaq of 2000 then it will peak in March. Martin Armstrong has a smaller high indicated for April 26, 2009. And my birthday is May 25th (sell in May go away! Don't come back 'till Judgement Day?). a sucker rally top in the spring would correlate better to the 1930 parallel.
Gold has been on a nice run recently. silver has too. this rally looks like it has legs. GDX is doing well, as is Newmont Mining. if any market sector holds up through the duration of 2009 it will be the gold sector. I have a decent idea of the long-term picture of gold. so don'tmiss it. I will post in the the next couple of days...
Jeffolie is predicting a Crisis in the Fall of 2009. His reasoning makes sense to me. it will basically be Big Wave 5 down or the at least the beginning of it. Dunno how long it lasts. could last six months, could last one year, could last five years. but the small investor -- Joe Six Share -- is gonna throw in the towel. You can be assured of that. Big Wave 5 down will also be called Operation Enduring Capitulation.
da bear
Party Like It's New Year's 1930!
"You know, I'm the President during this period of time, but I think when the history of this period is written, people will realize a lot of the decisions that were made on Wall Street took place over a decade or so, before I arrived in President, during I arrived in President." --George W. Bush, ABC News interview, Dec. 1, 2008
http://www.phpbbplanet.com/damessageboard/viewtopic.php?t=930&mforum=dam...
